CME FedWatch continues to show low March rate-cut odds, but mid-2025 probabilities rise, indicating growing market openness to Federal Reserve easing later in the year.
As of the latest update, CME FedWatch indicates an 84.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March, with a 15.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut. By June, market expectations show a 48.3% probability of a 25bps cut, 16.4% for a 50bps cut, and 1.6% for a 75bps reduction. These figures mark an increase from earlier data that showed only a 2.8% chance of a March cut and no probabilities for larger moves, suggesting markets are preparing for more significant easing possibilities in mid-2025.