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CME Data Shows 5.9% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in March

CME Data Shows 5.9% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in March

CME’s FedWatch tool now reflects marginal March rate cut odds, with probabilities increasing progressively toward June 2025.

Summary

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is a 94.1% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in March and a 5.9% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut. For April, odds of a 25 bps reduction stand at 20.5%, while June’s probability rises to 48.1%. These estimates indicate market expectations for gradual rate cut prospects building through mid-2025.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that uses futures market data to estimate the probability of changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates.
  • Basis Point: A unit of measure equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point, commonly used in interest rate discussions.