FedWatch data shows modest odds for a March rate cut, with rising probabilities for reductions by April and June, reflecting shifting market expectations.
CME’s FedWatch tool indicates a 21.7% probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March and a 78.3% chance of holding steady. April projections show a 35.7% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut and a 5.4% chance of a 50 basis point reduction. By June, markets assign a 49% probability to a 25 basis point cut, aligning with economists’ forecasts for easing monetary policy by mid-year.