CME FedWatch: 90.3% Probability of Fed Maintaining Interest Rates in March
Ahead of the CPI release, markets price in only a 9.7% chance of a cut this month, though traders see a 49.4% likelihood of cumulative easing by June.
Fact Check
The statement cites a specific probability from the CME FedWatch tool, which is hosted by CME Group. The authoritative primary sources providing direct access to the FedWatch tool and related Fed Funds market data are the official CME Group pages dedicated to market and interest rate products. These are credible sources for rate probability data. A secondary but reliable market news article also references the same figure—90.3%—as derived from CME FedWatch, confirming consistency between independent reports and CME’s official data. Other sources, such as Federal Reserve websites, provide relevant macroeconomic and policy context but do not directly address FedWatch probabilities. There are no credible counterclaims or contradictions among authoritative sources. Therefore, based on cross-verification between primary CME sources and a corroborating secondary source, the claim that the FedWatch tool showed a 90.3% chance of maintaining rates in March is very likely accurate at the time reported.
Summary
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Terms & Concepts
- CME FedWatch Tool: A market indicator that calculates the probabilities of future Federal Reserve interest rate moves based on Fed Funds futures trading data.
- CPI (Consumer Price Index): A key economic indicator that measures inflation by tracking the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.
- Basis Point: A unit of measure used in finance to describe the percentage change in the value or rate of a financial instrument; one basis point equals 0.01%.