Nick Timiraos: US Economy Nears Soft Landing Despite Tariff and Job Risks

Nick Timiraos highlights a potential soft landing as inflation cools, though Core PCE remains near 3%. Experts, including Payden & Rygel’s Jeffrey Cleveland, warn tariffs and rising unemployment could stall progress.

58d ago

Summary

Nick Timiraos stated the U.S. economy is approaching a soft landing, supported by cooling inflation and a resilient labor market. However, Core PCE remains near 3%, and analysts warn that tariff impacts could hinder further inflation progress. Payden & Rygel economist Jeffrey Cleveland specifically cautioned that unemployment rates are likely to rise, presenting continued economic risk.

Terms & Concepts

Soft Landing: A scenario where an economy slows down enough to curb inflation without slipping into a recession.
Core PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy; the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Tariff: A tax imposed by a government on imported goods, often used to regulate trade but capable of increasing consumer prices.