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Goldman Sachs Sees 3.4% Annualized U.S. GDP Rebound in Q1

Goldman Sachs Sees 3.4% Annualized U.S. GDP Rebound in Q1

Goldman Sachs (global investment bank) forecasts 3.4% annualized Q1 GDP as federal activity returns post-4Q shutdown; underlying growth about 2.1%, and moderate 2026 growth. Analysts say macro strength can influence Bitcoin and perpetual futures (no-expiry derivatives).

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Fact Check
The statement regarding Goldman Sachs' forecast of a 3.4% annualized U.S. GDP growth rate in the first quarter is most likely true based on the presence of authoritative and highly relevant primary sources directly connected to Goldman Sachs’ official economic research outputs. The official insights hub and related publications are credible, primary venues for these forecasts and provide high-confidence confirmation of such projections. No credible contradictions were found in other sources. Non-primary sources either do not address Goldman Sachs forecasts directly or pertain to other institutions’ views, thus they do not undermine the truthfulness of the statement. The combination of high authority, direct relevance, and absence of contradictory evidence supports a high probability that Goldman Sachs did indeed issue this forecast.
Summary

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to rise at a 3.4% annualized pace, largely due to the resumption of federal operations following the fourth-quarter government shutdown. Excluding that temporary lift, the bank estimates underlying growth around 2.1%. It also signals moderate growth in 2026, though no specific figures were disclosed. Historically, stronger macro readings can affect risk appetite across equities and digital assets like Bitcoin, with potential knock-on effects in crypto derivatives such as perpetual futures (no-expiry derivatives).

Terms & Concepts
  • Perpetual futures: Crypto derivatives with no expiration date, widely used for leveraged trading and price discovery.
  • Annualized growth: A quarterly growth rate scaled to a yearly pace to show how the economy would grow if the quarter’s rate persisted all year.
  • Government shutdown: A temporary halt of federal operations when funding lapses, reducing public-sector activity until budgets are approved.