Updated CME FedWatch data indicates traders assign a nearly 98% likelihood for no rate change in March, with expectations for possible cuts rising by mid-year.
According to CME FedWatch, market participants currently see only a 2% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in U.S. interest rates by March, with a 98% chance of no adjustment. The likelihood of one rate cut increases to 15.9% by April and reaches 42.7% by June, suggesting growing expectations of policy easing later in 2024.