Economists Say Trump’s Tariff Proposal Cannot Replace U.S. Income Tax Revenue

Multiple high-authority economic analyses from sources such as the Tax Policy Center, Tax Foundation, Yale Budget Lab, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model consistently conclude that Donald Trump's proposed tariffs would generate only a small fraction of total U.S. federal revenue—far below the amount collected from all federal income taxes. These studies use quantitative modeling to show that even with expanded tariff coverage or higher rates, tariff revenues would be insufficient to replace income tax receipts, which make up the majority of federal revenue. Treasury Department statements provide supporting data on the magnitude of total tax collections, aligning with these assessments but do not contradict them. No reviewed evidence suggests that tariffs could offset income tax revenue to a meaningful extent. The authority and convergence of independent analyses lead to a high-confidence determination that the claim—that economists have stated Trump’s proposed tariff plan would not generate enough revenue to replace all U.S. federal income tax revenue—is accurate.