Polymarket’s U.S.-Iran Conflict Markets Surpass $600M in Total Wagers

Polymarket’s event pages for a U.S. strike on Iran show historical odds that rose materially in late February. Independent market coverage by Bloomberg and the Financial Post reported Polymarket-implied odds around 60% for a U.S. strike before the end of March, indicating a substantial increase from earlier, lower levels. A separate crypto-market news item (Bitget citing Odaily) noted a surge from roughly 9% for a strike before March 1, corroborating that a sharp upward move occurred in this window. Yahoo Finance reported State Department evacuation authorizations from the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem around the same period, alongside market reactions (e.g., oil moving higher), anchoring the timing of evacuation advisories. While the sources collectively support that odds increased in close proximity to those advisories, the available summaries do not provide minute-by-minute alignment of the exact issuance time and the specific Polymarket tick-by-tick move. Given the consistent reporting of elevated odds contemporaneous with the evacuation advisories and the documented prior lower probabilities, it is likely true that Polymarket’s implied probability increased around that time. No provided source contradicts this, though the absence of precise timestamp matching warrants medium (not high) confidence.