Polymarket launched over ten Iran-related event contracts following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, attracting about $600 million in trades. The largest single contract, focused on U.S. airstrikes, reached $529 million in volume since Dec. 22. Traders currently estimate a 61% probability of a ceasefire by March 31 and a 78% probability by April 30, underscoring the platform’s role in real-time geopolitical speculation.