Market Odds on Khamenei Leaving Supreme Leader Role Surge to 62% on Kalshi
Prediction market Kalshi reports a sharp increase in probability for Ali Khamenei’s departure from Iran’s top leadership position, reflecting heightened political uncertainty.
Fact Check
The most relevant and authoritative primary source is the Kalshi politics category page focused on Iran markets, which directly shows odds for Ali Khamenei leaving the Supreme Leader position. This page provides detailed probabilities and timelines, and explicitly lists the odds as 62%, confirming the statement. Other sources mention the Ali Khamenei market only incidentally, without providing usable data for verification. Given that the main, highly relevant and credible source explicitly supports the claim with the precise figure cited, there is strong alignment between the statement and verified primary data. No contradictory evidence was found, only less relevant references. Therefore, it is highly likely that the statement is true.
Summary
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Terms & Concepts
- Kalshi: A U.S.-based prediction market platform where users trade contracts based on the outcome of real-world events.
- Supreme Leader of Iran: The highest-ranking political and religious authority in Iran, currently held by Ali Khamenei.
- Prediction Market: A market where participants buy and sell contracts whose payoff depends on the outcome of a future event, effectively reflecting collective expectations.