Kalshi Refunds Fees and Settles ‘Khamenei Stepping Down’ Market After Reported Death

Multiple reports acknowledge that Ali Khamenei’s death was confirmed and that Kalshi had an open prediction market concerning his potential stepping down or being out as Supreme Leader. While mainstream financial and news outlets confirm the underlying event (his death and its geopolitical market effects), the only detailed description of Kalshi’s specific market mechanics and post-event actions comes from the Event Horizon Substack article. That piece provides a firsthand account suggesting Kalshi closed the market and refunded fees instead of paying out one side, indicating that settlement through refund occurred rather than normal contract resolution. Although the blogger source’s authority is lower, no high-authority publication contradicts this account, and adjacent financial coverage implies disruption and suspension of related markets. The consistency between the independent report and the lack of any contrary evidence from official or major media sources supports the statement as likely true. However, the confidence is not absolute, since confirmation directly from Kalshi’s official communications or major authoritative financial outlets is absent.