Prediction Markets Record First Monthly Decline Since August Despite $23.4B Volume

February saw prediction market volume dip to $23.4 billion, ending a six-month growth streak, with Kalshi leading while Polymarket and Opinion Labs declined.

Summary

Prediction markets recorded $23.4 billion in total trading volume for February, marking their first monthly decline since August. Kalshi led with $9.8 billion, up from $8.9 billion, while Polymarket held steady at around $7.6 billion, and Opinion Labs saw a sharp drop to $3.1 billion from $8.1 billion. The figures highlight diverging trajectories among major prediction platforms after months of consistent growth.

Terms & Concepts
  • Prediction market: A trading platform where participants bet on the outcomes of future events, often used to gauge collective expectations.
  • Kalshi: A U.S.-regulated prediction market platform that allows users to trade on event outcomes under oversight of the CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator).
  • Polymarket: A decentralized prediction market built on blockchain technology enabling users to trade event-based outcomes using cryptocurrency.