Back

CME FedWatch Indicates Low Probability of March Fed Rate Cut, But Higher Chances of Easing by June

Market expectations remain focused on rate stability for March, with a slight increase in the odds of a 25-basis-point cut by June based on economic data trends.

Summary

CME FedWatch data shows only a 4.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with 95.3% expecting no change. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut rises to 31.5% by June, reflecting moderate expectations for future rate easing depending on economic conditions.

Terms & Concepts
  • CME FedWatch: A tool by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that calculates the market-implied probabilities of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
  • basis point (bps): A unit equal to one-hundredth of a percentage point, commonly used to describe interest rate changes.
  • nonfarm payrolls: A U.S. Department of Labor report measuring employment excluding farm workers and certain other job categories, closely watched as an economic indicator.