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Democrats Reach Record 45% Odds of 2026 Congressional Control on Kalshi

Democrats Reach Record 45% Odds of 2026 Congressional Control on Kalshi

Prediction market Kalshi shows traders assigning a 45% probability that Democrats will win both the House and Senate after the 2026 midterms, marking the highest level to date.

Fact Check
The 45% figure is directly visible in Kalshi's market data for the 'D-House, D-Senate' outcome as of March 11, 2026. Multiple independent market news sources corroborate that this level represents a record high for the 2026 midterm cycle.
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Terms & Concepts
  • Kalshi: A regulated prediction market platform where users trade contracts based on real-world events.
  • Midterms: U.S. elections held halfway through a president’s term to choose members of Congress.