Impeachment Odds for Donald Trump Reach Record High on Kalshi Platform
Prediction market Kalshi reports a 71% probability of former U.S. President Donald Trump's impeachment before 2028, marking the highest level to date.
Fact Check
The 71% probability is directly visible on the Kalshi platform's Trump category page as of March 10, 2026. Multiple independent market news sources corroborate that this level constitutes a record high for the 'impeachment before 2028' market. Although a single snippet from late 2025 mentioned a 72% figure, the current market data and widespread reporting today confirm 71% as the significant current peak and record.
Summary
Prediction market data from Kalshi shows that the probability of Donald Trump being impeached again before 2028 has surged to approximately 71%, reaching a new all-time high. The odds have been steadily rising from the mid-50% range, reflecting shifting trader sentiment around potential political developments. Kalshi, a regulated event futures exchange, allows users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, including political proceedings.
Terms & Concepts
- Prediction Market: A platform where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, such as elections or policy decisions.
- Kalshi: A U.S.-regulated event futures exchange that lets users trade based on real-world outcomes, including political and economic events.
- Impeachment: A constitutional process in the United States to charge and possibly remove a government official, including the President, for misconduct.