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U.S. February CPI Due at 20:30 With Market Expecting 2.4%

U.S. February CPI Due at 20:30 With Market Expecting 2.4%

According to the latest data, U.S. headline CPI rose 0.3% in February and 2.4% year over year, while CME FedWatch indicates markets overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in March.

Fact Check

The data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Trading Economics confirms that the February 2026 CPI was released on March 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET (which corresponds to 20:30 Beijing time). The actual figure was 2.4%, which matched the consensus forecast and the previous month's reading.

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Summary

The latest U.S. inflation data showed headline CPI rising 0.3% in February from the prior month and 2.4% year over year, matching the forecast and prior annual reading. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile categories, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% annually. CME FedWatch shows a 0.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March and a 99.3% chance that rates will remain unchanged. The next two FOMC meetings are scheduled for March 18 and April 29, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in the near term.

Terms & Concepts
  • CPI: Consumer Price Index, a key inflation measure that tracks changes in prices paid by consumers over time.
  • core CPI: A version of CPI that excludes certain volatile items to provide a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
  • FOMC: The Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve body that sets U.S. monetary policy, including interest rate decisions.