Polymarket said a U.S. intelligence assessment found Iran’s leadership remains largely intact, and the June 30 regime-collapse contract was priced at 24%, indicating limited expectations of near-term political change.
Polymarket said a U.S. intelligence assessment shows Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and sees no near-term risk of collapse. On the prediction market, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing before June 30 stood at 24%, a slight increase from the 23% level previously noted on March 11. The update adds source-based context to market pricing that has reflected reduced expectations for imminent regime change.