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Polymarket Shows Democrats’ 2026 Midterm Sweep Odds Rising to 45%

According to Polymarket (crypto-based prediction market), the probability of Democrats sweeping the 2026 U.S. midterm elections increased by 5 percentage points since the Iran war began.

Fact Check
The claim is accurately supported by real-time data from Polymarket as of March 12, 2026, which shows the 'Democrats Sweep' odds at 45%. Historical data from February 2026 (North Jersey) shows the odds were at 40% prior to the escalation of the Iran conflict in early March 2026 (USA Today), confirming the 5-percentage-point increase mentioned in the statement.
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Terms & Concepts
  • Polymarket: A crypto-based prediction market where users trade on the likelihood of future events.
  • Prediction market: A market in which participants buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities.