CME FedWatch shows markets fully expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in April, with only limited odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut emerging by June or July.
Following the Federal Reserve’s March 19 rate decision, CME FedWatch showed a 100% probability that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at the April meeting. As of March 19, the tool assigned an 11.2% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point cut by June, while the probability of no change stood at 88.8%. By July, the probability of no change was 77.4%. This update adds more detailed market-implied expectations to the existing context around the March 19 FOMC statement, which revised labor language, referenced uncertain economic effects from Middle East developments, and coincided with Governor Christopher Waller backing unchanged rates rather than a 25-basis-point cut.