Kalshi Traders Raise 2025 U.S. Recession Odds to 37%

The market-based forecast from Kalshi (U.S.-regulated prediction market) indicates higher perceived recession risk in the United States this year.

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Terms & Concepts
  • Recession: A broad economic downturn typically marked by falling output, weaker employment, and reduced consumer and business activity.
  • Prediction market: A trading market where participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events, with prices reflecting collective probability estimates.
  • Kalshi: A U.S.-regulated event trading platform where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events, including economic indicators.