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Kalshi Traders Put 2025 U.S. Recession Odds at 37%

Kalshi Traders Put 2025 U.S. Recession Odds at 37%

Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 30% and lowered key economic expectations, adding labor, growth, and Federal Reserve signals to broader slowdown concerns.

Fact Check
The statement accurately reflects economic reporting from March 2025. Multiple sources, including Interactive Brokers and Reuters, confirm that Kalshi's prediction market reached 37% for a 2025 recession and that Goldman Sachs revised its probability to 30% (and subsequently 35%) during that month.
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Summary

Kalshi traders had previously priced the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 37%. New input adds that Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 30%, increased its year-end unemployment forecast to 4.6%, and projected second-half U.S. GDP growth of 1.25% to 1.75%. The bank also said it expects Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December. Together, the figures show that recession concerns are appearing in both prediction market pricing and a major Wall Street forecast, while also pointing to slower growth, weaker labor conditions, and an easing outlook for monetary policy.

Terms & Concepts
  • Recession: A period of broad economic contraction, typically associated with slower output, weaker employment, and reduced business activity.
  • Prediction market: A market where traders buy and sell contracts tied to future events, generating implied probabilities from prices.
  • Federal Reserve: The U.S. central bank, which sets monetary policy including interest rates that influence growth, inflation, and employment.