Kalshi traders had previously priced the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 37%. New input adds that Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 30%, increased its year-end unemployment forecast to 4.6%, and projected second-half U.S. GDP growth of 1.25% to 1.75%. The bank also said it expects Federal Reserve rate cuts in September and December. Together, the figures show that recession concerns are appearing in both prediction market pricing and a major Wall Street forecast, while also pointing to slower growth, weaker labor conditions, and an easing outlook for monetary policy.