Polymarket pricing moved higher after Donald Trump said on Truth Social that Iran’s new president had requested a ceasefire tied to unobstructed passage through the Hormuz Strait.
Polymarket odds that the Hormuz Strait will reopen by the end of April rebounded to 21% after a Truth Social post from Donald Trump on April 1. Trump said Iran’s new president had requested a ceasefire and linked any ceasefire to unobstructed passage through the strait. This updated the prior market reading of 17% and indicates traders adjusted probabilities in response to the new statement.