Polymarket pricing shifted sharply after an Iranian official said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen this week if a ceasefire framework is reached before April 10 talks in Islamabad.
Polymarket odds tied to Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization rose from 26% to 41% within an hour after an Iranian official said Tehran could reopen the waterway on Thursday or Friday if a ceasefire framework is reached before April 10 talks in Islamabad. The existing contract had previously shown about 57% odds that traffic would return to normal by April 30, with roughly $4.07 million in trading volume. The market uses IMF PortWatch data and resolves to yes if the 7-day moving average of transiting vessels reaches 60 or more on any day.